Just Let It Rain - or Snow - Already!

The past week's rain and snow throughout Valley County was welcomed and even elicited comments such as "Thank goodness for this rain!" "I don't like snow this time of year but it's better than nothing!" and "We need all of the moisture we can get!" throughout the community. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Glasgow, every little bit of moisture helps, but it would sure be helpful if Mother Nature did even more.

The last 15 months, January 2021 to March 2022, have been some of the driest on record with Glasgow receiving only 50 percent of normal precipitation, 7.41 inches of the normal 14.70 inches. Hinsdale was at 46 percent of normal, only receiving 8.31 inches of their normal 17.98 inches. Wolf Point was at 58 percent, receiving 8.92 inches of their normal 15.47 inches. For the data provided by the NWS, Saco is the outlier, receiving 65 percent of normal, 9.46 inches of their typical 14.48 inches.

"Overall, the picture is not looking good for the drought for eastern Montana. It looks to continue for at least the foreseeable future," stated Warning Coordination Meteorologist of the NWS in Glasgow Patrick Gilchrist. "The outlook for the summer continues to look hot and dry, and that's July, August, September. We're seven-plus inches behind where we'd want to be over the past 15 months. Ultimately, we're not going to get that moisture back anytime soon. The road out of the drought is probably going to take some substantial amount of time to replenish the moisture that we haven't received."

According to Gilchrist, the outlooks right now for April, May and June, the wettest months in northeastern Montana, are showing normal precipitation potential. If the outlooks hold true, it could go a long way towards alleviating some of the impacts, including getting grasses to grow as well as crops developed in order to grow. The National Weather Service is expecting a winter storm this week with Glasgow expecting four inches and Opheim two to three inches with more snow accumulations near the Montana/North Dakota border.

If normal precipitation can occur over the next three months, it would help out a lot when going into the dry months of July, August and September. However, even though normal precipitation will be helpful, it won't replenish what has been lost.

Northeastern Montana is not the only area being affected by the lack of moisture. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the majority of the state is in either Severe Drought (D2) or Extreme Drought (D3). In addition to Montana, the entire western side of the United States is also in varying degrees of drought. As of press time, the northern half of Valley County is in D2 while the southern half is in D3.

D2 conditions include hay and crop yields are low, hay quality is poor and subsoil moisture is nonexistent; fire count and danger are high as well as air quality is poor; trees and landscaping show signs of stress and lose leaves; livestock ponds are low or dry, water quality is monitored and wells are stress. D3 conditions include crops are not harvestable, winter pasture is opened for grazing, producers are hauling water and culling cattle, selling early; fire restrictions increase; agriculture and local business face economic loss; and cattle have very little water.

"We are in this together in a lot of ways, that much of the western United States is in a middle of a multi-year drought as well. Certainly, that's concerning, not only for agriculture production but also fire, as we get into what looks to be another busy fire year. Again, resources will be stretched thin, potentially, and it's not looking very optimistic at this point for those things," explained Gilchrist.

This isn't the first time these areas have experienced drought conditions, with the most recent in 2017. However, the two droughts are different. The 2017 drought was considered a flash drought due to it coming on so quickly as a result of the stop in precipitation for a period of time. This drought has been 15 months in the making and is a result of lack of precipitation over period of time. "This is the second once-in-a-generation drought that we've had since 2017," said Gilchrist.

Due to having two droughts in such a short time frame Gilchrist admits this is uncharted territory, with concerns regarding water availability, such as when/if the ground water will start to dry up, in addition to what effect the drought will have on the overall economy.

"Something that's been on my mind is what point do we start to feel the impacts with the ground water? I can remember as a kid in 1988 hearing stories of wells going dry. We haven't really gotten to that point yet, what point does that start to occur again?," said Gilchrist. "Our economy here is based on agriculture. When the biggest sector in our economy starts to hurt, it's going to ripple through the entire economy and it's definitely not where we want to be."

Gilchrist encourages those who are feeling the effects of drought, whether it's due to crops not growing or having to sell off cow/calf pairs, to submit the information through the Drought Impact Reporter: https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ConditionMonitoringObservations.aspx. By having conditions reported from those directly affected, all the data can be collected which would open the pathways for various programs to assist with the effects the drought has brought on throughout the country.

Gilchrist also encourages the public to view monthly briefings which are broadcasted on the National Weather Service Youtube page, @NWSGlasgow typically the last week of the month.