Smoky Weather Explained

Smoky Air moved into Northeast Montana Monday Evening

We’ve had a lot of calls about the smoke. Here are some updates on the source and movement of the air, and potential health concerns:

The fire source region is in the boreal forest of northern Saskatchewan, Alberta and Northwest Territories. There are multiple fires burning, with acreage as of June 29 at 148,000 acres or 231 square miles.

Air quality at the two eastern Montana stations in Malta and near Sidney is “Hazardous” according to the sensors that MT DEQ has there. This is the first time in 14.5 years here that I have ever seen it at Hazardous

Visibilities have been as low as 3/4 of a mile at stations that have observing equipment. We are getting reports of a quarter mile in some places and off the web cams as well.

As far as I can recall, this is the first time we have ever issued a Dense Smoke Advisory in Northeast Montana since our establishment as a weather forecast office in August, 1995.

A cold front is going to be moving through this week and winds will be fairly strong from the northwest. That will help improve much of the area. But, with that amount of fire to our north, we can shift back into a pattern that could bring the smoke back into the region. We are not out of the woods yet.

Health precautions include staying inside an air-conditioned building with windows closed. If you have to be outside, an N95 mask is recommended. Cloth masks or the ones you use from the hardware store for painting are not going to help. If traveling, use the recirculate air option in your vehicle.

Smoke is being reported as far south as Oklahoma City and Little Rock, and as far east into Minnesota and Illinois. The western extent has been into the Havre area with the southern extent in Montana down into Miles City.

Increasing Fire Danger

While we are still pretty green across most of NE Montana, the last few days have been HOT and DRY. Parts of the western CMR dropped below 10 percent RH on Sunday, and overnight lows were in the upper 60s and lower 70s. We have a low-pressure system and cold front coming through this week and it has the potential for thunderstorms and dry lightning. The area from Fort Peck dam west to the Rocky Mountain front is pretty dry.

Fireworks Safety

We have some concerns for the 4th of July weekend with a strong cold front coming through, switching wind speeds/direction during the day and evening, and with thunderstorms along that front. There is still some uncertainty in timing, but we know communities are planning firework shows, and a strong wind with a frontal passage would cause problems (a few years ago on the 4th of July, with 40+ mph winds, the fire crews had to chase down fires for hours from private fireworks people had). Also, the models are not giving much precipitation with that event, so that could complicate issues as well with dry lightning and little accumulation as storms come through. It looks like winds will be strong enough on Sunday still to possibly necessitate a Lake Wind Advisory.

Please don’t hesitate to call us 24/7 if you have any issues or need a little extra information at 406-228-4042 or visit http://www.weather.gov/glasgow. If you are calling for decision support, ask for a forecaster. If you are calling for fire weather, please ask for a fire weather forecaster.