Ag Speakers On Their Way To Glasgow

Trying to peg down how the upcoming year for the ag industry will go is not an easy task. Some predictions will never be fully made, such as weather disasters or an outbreak of disease that will take a toll on crops and livestock. Knowing some numbers, though, on the local, national and global scale can help farmers predict the upcoming year in the market.

Ryan Fast, who chairs the Trends in Ag seminar this year for the Glasgow Chamber of Commerce & Agriculture, explained that the board always tries to line up people that will be able to give a good glimpse on newer trends that may have impact and validity to local ranchers and farmers. He said they also try to bring in at least one person who is from the local area and can help with what is current around home. The board started planning for this year in March and tried to have speakers locked in by June.

This year Trends in Ag will take place on Wednesday, Jan. 14 from 9 a.m. until about 3:30 p.m. Tickets can be purchased during registration at 8:30 a.m. Speakers on the lineup include Barry Flinchbaugh, who will take a look at the political climate in agriculture and issues that the new congress might focus on. Bob Sougaard will address a local insect that is quite a pest, the orange wheat blossom midge. The third speaker, Mike Pearson, is a broadcaster who keeps up on global and national trends in the market. Fast said that a representative from Edward Jones would speak at the end of the lineup to address estate planning.

Pearson spoke to The Courier a bit about his presentation, and what the ag industry could look toward this year. He grew up in Iowa, where he helped manage his family’s grain and livestock operation. He ended up providing market updates and news reports for radio in Iowa and found himself in the bank industry after college. His financial experience as an agriculture lender helped out when he followed in his father’s footsteps in 2010 and took over the show “Market to Market” after his father passed away. His father hosted the show for 20 years. Pearson said that he and his wife have a small cattle operation in addition to hosting the show.

“When I speak to an audience I try to give an overview on three areas,” Pearson said.

He went on to explain that he looks at what will go on in the short term, what’s going on in policy and what kind of things going on that might have a long-term impact. Other issues such as weather might have an impact directly. Some things aren’t predictable.

The flooding in August he said had no direct impact on the Chicago or Kansas City trades, but could have indirect impact on the possibility of planting intentions and the types of resources available. Another issue that will be watched closely is the railroad car shortages. He predicted that there could be some relief as reports came in about an increase in railcars and with the Bakken possibly slowing due to lower oil prices.

“I think the lessons from last year were learned,” Pearson said. “The downturn in crude oil prices could lighten the load and alleviate a lot of headaches.”

In the short term Pearson predicted that corn, bean, wheat, beef and hogs would stay strong this year. In particular Pearson thought that corn would do well as demand still continues, but he though less acreage would be planted this year. The wheat market might see some really good numbers as well. The Russian and Ukraine economy would have an impact on the global market, making their misfortune a slight fortune for domestic farmers.

As far as policies were concerned he said that some issues may be up in the air with the new congress. Issues he would focus on is the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) water regulations, the mandatory country of origin labeling and of course how the Farm Bill might shape up this year. Water regulations could be tricky as they try to control several water sources that weren’t a worry for the ag industry for generations prior. Labeling could impact the beef industry as Canada and Mexico have fought and won at the World Trade Organization (WTO) about labeling where beef sold comes from. The U.S. could scrap the labeling laws, or the U.S. could face tariffs and other fees slapped onto their product, which would make a global trade impact.

“The long term is kind of like crystal ball gazing,” Pearson said.

He said that protein consumption has skyrocketed and some countries like China and India continue to grow their middle class, which tends to bring higher demands for beef, hogs and poultry. Prices in the last year were seen at record highs and Pearson predicted that those trends would continue. While record prices might only last for this upcoming year, there could be some stability in higher prices. It’s probably safe to say that it’s a good year to be in beef. Other long term predictions were that the soy market would also do well, as soy is used in meal for livestock and the demand would probably see a rise.

Pearson also said that rural America is positioned to catch several advantages in the ag industry. He said he was looking forward to coming to Glasgow and hoped to see a good crowd.

“The future for ag is really bright for the next 10 to 15 years,” Pearson said.